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Honeywell forecasts stable near-term helicopter demand

By Vertical Mag | March 1, 2015

Estimated reading time 4 minutes, 44 seconds.

Light single-engine helicopters continue to be the most popular class of civil helicopters, according to Honeywell. Sheldon Cohen Photo
Recovery in the North American market will help sustain steady demand for turbine-powered civil helicopters in the face of lower energy prices and global instability, according to Honeywell Aerospace’s latest forecast.
In its 17th annual Turbine-Powered Civil Helicopter Purchasing Outlook, released on March 1, Honeywell predicts that 4,750 to 5,250 civilian-use helicopters will be delivered during 2015-2019. That’s only slightly down from its 2014-2018 forecast — which estimated deliveries of 4,800 to 5,000 helicopters — despite a pullback in civil helicopter deliveries during 2014.
“There’s still a very solid interest in acquiring new helicopters over the next five years,” said Honeywell director of market analysis Charles Park in discussing the results with Vertical. “It’s very positive news given that deliveries did slip down off the 2013 peak.”
According to Park, stronger demand for helicopters in sectors including training, tourism, firefighting, and law enforcement should offset some of the short-term uncertainty of large-fleet operators, who have been impacted by falling oil prices and fluctuating market currencies. 
Much of that stronger demand will be in North America, Honeywell predicts. Its forecast estimates the five-year share of demand from the U.S. and Canada at 34 percent, up nearly eight points on stronger North American buying plans.
When combined with Latin America, the Western Hemisphere represents 53 percent of the five-year global demand. Europe’s share tallies 24 percent, with the Asia-Oceania region accounting for 14 percent, and Africa and the Middle East contributing nine percent.
While large-fleet operators of heavy multi-engine helicopters have scaled back some of their near-term expansion plans, Park described smaller operators as “optimistic” with respect to new helicopter purchases. According to Honeywell, light single-engine helicopters — including the Airbus Helicopters EC130/AS350 series, Bell 407, Bell 505 and Robinson R66 — continue to be the most popular helicopter class, garnering almost half the new purchase interest in the 2015 survey.
Intermediate and medium twin-engine helicopters such as the AgustaWestland AW139, Airbus Helicopters EC145 T2, and Sikorsky S-76 are the second most popular product class, with approximately 31 percent of total survey participants planning to buy a new model of this type. The light twin helicopter class (including the Airbus Helicopters EC135 and Bell 429) earned between 18 and 19 percent of total operator purchase plans in the 2015 survey.
Meanwhile, operators in all sectors are reporting plans to increase utilization of their helicopter fleets this year — a positive finding for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) and other service providers. In North America, 27 percent of operators are planning increases, and only six percent are planning decreases. That number is even higher in Latin America, where 45 percent of operators are planning increases and only four percent are planning decreases. The respective figures in Europe are 10 and four percent; in the Middle East and Africa, 18 and three percent; and in Asia-Oceania, 14 and six percent.
According to Honeywell, all end-use categories in its 2015 survey reported increased levels of flight activity. Oil and gas operators reported the highest flight-hour use per aircraft at approximately 850 hours per year, followed by tourism with a strong increase to just under 700 hours per year and then law enforcement at more than 600 hours per year. Emergency medical services, training, firefighting and general utility were closely grouped at approximately 400 to 450 hours per year. The lowest average use was reported by corporate segment operators, at just over 360 hours per helicopter per year.
This year’s survey queried more than 1,000 chief pilots and flight department managers of companies operating 3,400 turbine and 400 piston helicopters worldwide. The survey excluded large fleet or “mega” operators, which were interviewed separately. Park noted that the survey response from Russian operators was very low this year, which continues to add some uncertainty to the overall European results.

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